ACT willpay down debtfaster

Debt measure. Net core Crown debt, Treasury's headline debt indicator: core Crown borrowings less financial assets, excluding the NZ Super Fund and advances.

ACT's path. Each item's yearly effect on the operating balance and on cash comes from ACT's fiscal plan model (version 2026.10), for 2027/28 to 2030/31. Measures still to be announced are included in the totals. ACT's debt is Treasury's forecast less the running total of the cash improvement. Interest savings are charged on the average reduction in debt during each year, matching the financing-cost savings in ACT's model. "Off debt by 2031" is each step's total cash contribution over the four years.

Labour's path. Labour's fiscal plan (October 2026) publishes its debt on the broader "net debt" measure: $0.74bn, $0.77bn, $0.80bn, $0.84bn and $0.88bn above Treasury's forecast from 2026/27 to 2030/31. We add that gap to Treasury's net core Crown debt so all three tracks use the same measure. Labour's OBEGAL figures are as published.

Testing Labour's numbers. All three tests are off by default. $90m error: Labour recorded its Income Related Rent Subsidy and Accommodation Supplement reversal as a $44.8m saving when it is a cost (identified by the Taxpayers' Union, accepted by Labour); Investment Boost: National says official Treasury and Inland Revenue costings are $1.71bn in 2027/28 and $1.28bn in 2028/29, against Labour's $2.11bn and $1.97bn, a $2.2bn gap over four years; we split the remaining gap evenly over 2029/30 and 2030/31. Labour disputes this. Pay equity: Budget 2025 booked about $2.7bn a year of savings from the Equal Pay Amendment Act. Labour will reinstate the regime but provides $558m a year (the $4 an hour rise), so the test adds the $2.14bn difference from 2027/28. Each test also carries interest at 4.7%. Health cost pressures: Labour's plan adds $1.40bn, $1.44bn and $1.55bn of health cost-pressure funding to 2029/30, then nothing in 2030/31; the test adds $1.5bn that year. School lunches: Labour funds $146m, $295m and $149m to 2029/30 and nothing in 2030/31; the test adds $295m. Unallocated room: Labour says $10.5bn of its operating allowances is unallocated. Treasury's forecast already assumes allowances are spent, so costs paid from that room don't add to debt but leave nothing for other cost pressures. The debt figures assume Labour borrows instead.

Growth. Treasury's rule of thumb (PREFU 2026, Table 3.1): one percentage point faster nominal GDP growth raises tax revenue by $1.3bn, $2.8bn and $4.5bn in the first three years. The slider scales this from 2027/28 and lifts GDP in the ratios. It is not counted in ACT's costed plan.

Live figures. The debt estimate moves in a straight line between the June 2026 actual ($186.7bn) and the June 2027 forecast ($209.6bn), about $63 million a day. The "since you arrived" counters use the same rate of new borrowing (about $727 a second) and the 2026/27 finance-cost forecast of $10.3bn (about $326 a second).

Debt by government. Fiscal years end in June; elections were in October 2020 and October 2023. Each period therefore includes a few months of its predecessor's decisions. Labour governing alone: June 2020 to June 2023. National-ACT-NZ First: June 2023 to June 2026.

Crisis buffer. Headroom is the gap between debt and 50% of GDP, the ceiling Treasury recommends in normal times (Investment Statement 2025). Treasury estimates shock responses have cost about 10% of GDP per decade since the late 1980s (Te Ara Mokopuna 2025), about $58bn at 2030/31 GDP.

Horizon. The comparison runs to 2030/31, the last year of Treasury's forecast and of Labour's plan.

Measure used in ACT's fiscal plan document. The plan document reports "net debt excluding the NZ Super Fund", a broader measure that reads lower than net core Crown debt. The reduction ACT's plan achieves is the same on either measure: $24.9bn by June 2031.